Robert T. Wetherell, The Daily Record Newswire
The baby boom generation is considered to be those individuals born between 1945 and 1963. Some people stretch it to 1965, but the decline in the birth rate began in 1963. This 18-year generation has had a tremendous impact on the United States and on the legal profession. However, people forget it is impossible to lump this group completely together as a demographic.
For instance, my brother, the Honorable Michael Wetherell, was born in 1946. Many of his experiences are entirely different from mine. While he was in high school for the Kennedy years, I was there for Nixon. While his music was the Beach Boys and The Beatles, for me it was Bruce Springsteen and The Rolling Stones. While he grew up watching “Leave It to Beaver,” I grew up watching “All in the Family.” The views of this demographic group are widely divergent, as are their life experiences. The oldest of the baby boomers have just turned 69 and the youngest are in their 50s. This creates a challenge for Bar Associations throughout the United States.
A snap shot of the legal profession provides us with a view as to where our profession may be headed. Latest figures reveal the following:
There are 1,268,011 lawyers in the United States. These lawyers are employed as follows:
75 percent Private practice
8 percent Government
8 percent Private industry
4 percent Retired
3 percent Judiciary
1 percent Educational
2 percent Legal aid/
public defender
1 percent Private
association/charity
* * * * *
Of the 75 percent private practitioners, they are structured as follows:
49 percent Solo practice
14 percent 2-5 Lawyers
6 percent 6-10 Lawyers
6 percent 11-20 Lawyers
6 percent 21-50 Lawyers
4 percent 51-100 Lawyers
16 percent 101+ Lawyers
* * * * *
Of the total number of law firms, their size breaks out as follows:
76 percent 2-5 Lawyers
13 percent 6-10 Lawyers
6 percent 11-20 Lawyers
3 percent 21-50 Lawyers
1 percent 51-100 Lawyers
1 percent 101+ Lawyers
Of the total number of lawyers, approximately 50 percent are over 50 years old and will be eligible for retirement in the next 15 years. The ABA estimates that 400,000 lawyers will retire within the next 10-15 years and at least 100,000 will “drop out” (that is, use their law degree to pursue a second career).
Some state bars, especially in rural states, face a serious shortage of lawyers in rural communities. South Dakota has already started to address this problem with a pilot program so that members of rural communities will not have to travel several hundred miles to meet with an attorney.
When you look at the numbers, it appears new lawyers are flocking to the cities to be unemployed. There is a great unmet need for lawyers in rural communities throughout the United States.
The Aging Lawyer
The first issue the bar and bench must address is the aging lawyer. I was at the courthouse a few years ago and saw a lawyer in his mid to late 70’s on his way to court. I had known this lawyer for 30 years. When I asked what he was up to he responded, “poor planning.”
A large number of lawyers who are eligible to retire do not have the resources to retire and, let’s face it, the ability to stay on top of a legal practice slips with age. To top it off, the majority of these lawyers will be solo practitioners with little or no backup. How will the bench and bar deal with the lawyer who should retire?
Location
The second issue is, “where these lawyers will be practicing?” A recent Forbes magazine article noted that over the last three years, 250 large law firms laid off more than 10,000 lawyers and these lawyers are not being rehired. Some commentators predict there will be 40 percent fewer lawyers practicing law in the next 13 years largely as a result of retirement, technology and globalization. (I have limited space here, but the ABA website and a presentation by Ury and Lyons is well worth five minutes of your time and thought: www.americanbarfoundation.org/uploads/cms/documents/rl_spring_2011.pdf)
As for globalization, legal costs in the Unites States have escalated by 75 percent in the last 15 years, especially at large law firms. The United States is a signator to the GAP Trade Agreement and that Agreement specifically includes the legal trade. The United Kingdom, India, Australia and New Zealand all have lawyers who speak English and are trained in the common law. By 2015, it is estimated that $5.8 billion of legal work will be outsourced to India alone. E-mail a draft contract, receive a re-draft that same day at a fraction of the cost. The latest figures available under GAP signed by the United States in 1995, show that in 2007 the United States exported 6.7 billion dollars of legal services and imported $1.6 billion. Large American law firms are scrambling to compete for work from corporations that are very fee conscious. Will a significant amount of legal work be practiced overseas and how will Bar leaders deal with this trend?
Technology
The final issue regarding where lawyers will practice deals with technology.
Law libraries are now available on-line and complex litigation can be handled from a law office in a small town as easily as from a large firm in a big city.
Imagine the tremendous amount of legal work product now available for free review. In a matter of years, an enormous amount of work product will be a click away.
The future challenges for the Bar include an aging bar, rural legal demand, foreign lawyers, cyberspace law sites and technology. Will new lawyers move to rural communities and necessarily enhance those communities by their presence and community involvement, or will citizens of rural communities be required to engage city lawyers over the Internet? The California State Bar executive director recently spoke at a conference and his comments were disturbing. The California Bar is no longer primarily a resource for California lawyers, but is first and foremost a regulatory agency. The executive director made it clear that he saw his role and the role of the California Bar as a regulatory agency with the mission of protecting the public from predatory lawyers.
His comments were not directed at California lawyers but at all lawyers, especially cyber-lawyers, who see California as a potential scammer’s paradise. He stated bluntly that this was the future of bar organizations nationwide.
How future bar leaders handle these issues will determine if other state bars simply become a regulatory agency or an effective legal/public resource.
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Robert T. Wetherell is a 1982 graduate of the University of Idaho Law School and clerked for the United States District Court for the District of Idaho immediately upon his graduation. Since that time he has been in private practice in Boise and is now a principle and partner at Capitol Law Group in Boise. Wetherell began serving as bar president in January.
