By John Flesher
Associated Press
Economic miseries that caused Michigan's population to stagnate over the past 10 years are likely to erode the state's clout in Congress -- and its share of federal money -- into the future, analysts said ahead of the U.S. Census Bureau's release Tuesday of new population data.
The statewide population totals from the 2010 census will determine how representatives in the U.S. House are apportioned for the next decade. All signs point toward Michigan losing at least one seat, which would reduce its delegation from 15 members to 14 and continue a decline that began in the 1970s, when the state had 19 seats, Brookings Institution demographer William Frey said.
The last census, in 2000, put Michigan's population at 9,938,444. The bureau last year estimated it at 9,969,727 -- an increase of less than 1 percent, reflecting the outflow of residents who sought jobs elsewhere.
If that trend holds up, Michigan would have the lowest growth rate of any state since the previous census, Frey said.
"It's just been a bad decade for the industrial Midwest as a whole, and Michigan has borne the brunt of it," he said. "It illustrates just how much the economy is tied to population growth."
State officials agreed that prospects were not bright. Still, the Office of Management, Budget and Technology was hoping its vigorous campaign to register as many residents as possible would give Michigan an unexpected boost, spokesman Curt Weiss said.
The blitz was aimed primarily at retirees who spend winters in Florida, Arizona and other sunny locales. Officials believe as many as 200,000 of them may have failed to list Michigan as their primary residence for the 2000 census.
"If we were able to capture every one of those snowbirds we missed last time, we could have avoided losing a seat," Weiss said. "Obviously we won't get them all, but we put forth the effort anyway."
If Michigan does forfeit a seat, it would add further intrigue to the process of redrawing congressional districts, which takes place after every census. The task is handled by the state Legislature, which will be under Republican control for at least the next two years. The incoming governor, Rick Snyder, also is a Republican.
That means the GOP will have the upper hand in fashioning a district map favorable to its candidates. A likely scenario would merge two majority-Democratic seats in southeastern Michigan, forcing the incumbents to run against each other or retire.
Still, Republicans will have to proceed cautiously to avoid running afoul of laws meant to prevent blatant gerrymandering and discrimination against minority voters, said Ed Sarpolus, a Lansing political strategist.
For that reason, they probably will preserve the two majority-black districts in the Detroit area held by veteran Rep. John Conyers and incoming freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke, making Democrats in nearby districts such as Reps. Sander Levin and Gary Peters more vulnerable, Sarpolus said.
"There's not too much the Republicans can do to improve on their situation because it's so good already," said Paul Abramson, a political science professor at Michigan State University.
Regardless of which candidates or party fares better after the census, the state as a whole figures to lose.
Dropping another seat would reduce Michigan's strength in Congress, a problem that may be partially offset by the presence of Michigan lawmakers in key positions. Rep. Fred Upton assumes the chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee, while fellow Republican Rep. Dave Camp will head the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee and Levin will be ranking Democrat on that panel.
But census numbers also are used to allocate federal funding for a wide variety of programs, from highway construction to education and health care for the needy. If Michigan loses ground to other states in the number of residents, its share of the pie will shrink.
"We want to get every dime we can for a state like Michigan that's so economically challenged," Weiss said.
Published: Wed, Dec 22, 2010
